Baseball people tend to be a superstitious lot. Their eyes have seen too many improbable ninth-inning rallies, too many late season slumps to take anything for granted. To mistake the all-but-certain for settled reality is to invite comeuppance from the baseball gods.
They don’t make any assumptions about where they stand until the math proves it. And maybe not even then until it’s posted on Facebook.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, only a force majeure will prevent the Phillies from making the postseason for the third straight season. They beat the Mets, 2-1 on a walkoff single in the bottom of the ninth by catcher J.T. Realmuto Sunday and continue to hold the best record in baseball.
Add the fact that lefthander Cristopher Sanchez had just turned in one of his best performances of the season – one run on six hits in seven-plus innings – and the question to Rob Thomson postgame was inevitable: Could he imagine Sanchez starting Game 2 in the postseason?
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“We haven’t really gotten there yet,” the manager said, ducking and dodging like Walter Payton eluding would-be tacklers. “Once we get in, if we get in, we’ll figure that out.”
Hey, he didn’t deny it.
There are two reasons why that would make sense. The first is that Sanchez (10-9, 3.24) would break up the two righthanders, presumed Game 1 starter Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Second, and more compelling, are his home-road splits.
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At Citizens Bank Park his earned run average is 2.11, the third best in baseball. He’s 7-3 with an 0.96 WHIP and a .220 opponent’s batting average.
On the road, his ERA is 5.13, the fourth worst in MLB. He’s 3-6 with a 1.67 WHIP and a .314 opponent’s batting average.
“It’s hard to say,” said J.T. Realmuto. “I know the numbers are different. I don’t notice anything different when I’m catching him. It still feels like the stuff is as good. He feels like the same pitcher. I don’t know if there’s something to it or not.”
Even Sanchez can’t make sense of it.
“I think I have to work on that and get better at that,” he said through interpreter Diego D’Aniello. “I’ve noticed. I’ve checked the numbers. They’re not so good on the road, so that’s something I’ve got to work on to get better.”
Assuming the Phillies earn homefield advantage in the best-of-5 Division Series, Game 2 would be at home, Game 3 on the road.
The argument against moving Sanchez up in the rotation is that Nola, by dint of his tenure with the organization and his past accomplishments, deserves that honor. And, of course, how well each starter – including Ranger Suarez, who gets the ball Monday night in Milwaukee – performs between now and October 5 can change the outlook dramatically.
Against the Mets, his formula for success was pretty straightforward: According to Thomson, 42 of his first 50 pitches were strikes as were 69 of 87 (79.3 percent) overall. “Unbelievable,” the manager said.
One way or the other, the Phillies will be relying on him. That’s a switch from just a year ago when it wasn’t a given that he’d get on the mound at all. He was on the postseason roster, but didn’t appear, in the wild card or division rounds. He made one start in the NLCS against Arizona, giving up two runs (one earned) on two hits in 2.1 innings.
“Experience plays a big part in this. I think it’s going to be one of the keys because I’ve been through the postseason before and that’s prepared me better,” Sanchez said.
No matter which day he pitches.
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